Polymarket’s Retention Outpaces Most Crypto Apps, Data Shows
Polymarket’s user retention is outpacing most decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, wallets and exchanges, according to cohort data highlighting ongoing challenges in keeping crypto users active beyond their first month.
Retention figures compiled by analytics firm Dune and market maker Keyrock tracked monthly cohorts of new active users and measured how many returned to trade in later months.
The report, which sampled 275 crypto projects across networks, DeFi protocols, wallets and trading applications, found that Polymarket’s average retention exceeded that of over 85% of protocols in the study.
The data underscores how sustained usage remains uncommon across the sector. In markets where liquidity depends on regular participation, weak retention can indicate limited growth depth.
Why crypto platforms explore prediction markets
Prediction markets differ from typical crypto applications by tying engagement to real-world events such as elections, sports results and macroeconomic releases, providing recurring prompts for users to return.
This event-driven cadence supports higher-frequency participation and reduces reliance on incentives to sustain activity. The dynamic has prompted major crypto platforms to increasingly test prediction market integrations.
For entities that struggle to maintain steady engagement outside periods of high volatility, adding event-based features may encourage habitual use rather than one-off transactions.
Crypto entities move into prediction markets
In December, Coinbase, Gemini, wallet service Phantom and clearing provider Bitnomial Clearinghouse each signaled plans related to prediction markets.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase will introduce tokenized equities and prediction markets, following a post by tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong that shared alleged leaks of the exchange’s prediction markets website.
On the same day, Phantom announced a partnership with prediction market Kalshi to integrate event-based trading into its wallet, enabling users to trade tokenized Kalshi positions within the Phantom app.
On Saturday, Bitnomial received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to launch prediction markets and provide clearing services to other platforms.
On Tuesday, crypto exchange Gemini unveiled an in-house prediction market available across all 50 U.S. states, stating its goal is to offer a single application where users can access both crypto trading and prediction markets.
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