Arthur Hayes: Fed’s RMP Mimics QE, Favoring Bitcoin and gold
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, said in a Substack post published Friday that the Federal Reserve’s new “reserve management purchases” (RMP) program effectively functions like quantitative easing. He argued that by purchasing short-dated Treasury bills and channeling liquidity through money markets, the Fed is supporting government financing while avoiding the political label of QE, even as officials describe the program as a technical reserve-management operation. Hayes characterized the approach as inflationary for financial assets and for goods and services.
Hayes wrote that programs such as RMP expand fiat liquidity and, in his view, tend to benefit scarce assets, including Bitcoin, gold, and silver. He added that individuals without asset exposure are disadvantaged because monetary expansion reduces purchasing power, weighs on real wages relative to prices, and shifts wealth toward asset holders.
Polymarket signals pause following December rate cut
On Dec. 10, the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced purchases of short-term Treasury securities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the purchases were “solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves” and were separate from the stance of monetary policy.
The Fed said the purchases would total about $40 billion in the first month and could remain elevated for several months to alleviate near-term money market pressures, particularly around seasonal factors such as tax payments.
Despite the rate cut and the Treasury-bill purchases, some analysts said Powell’s mixed messaging could limit a sustained Bitcoin rally until the rate-cutting cycle resumes in 2026.
Bitcoin traded near $92,695 on Dec. 10, according to Yahoo Finance data, and was around $87,300 at the time of writing.
At the time of writing, Polymarket traders were largely pricing no change to Fed policy in January, assigning about a 77% probability to rates remaining unchanged, roughly a 21% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and very low odds for larger moves.
Powell’s term expires in May 2026. US President Donald Trump is preparing to interview finalists to succeed him, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett widely viewed as a leading candidate.
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