Santiment: Bitcoin May Fall Toward $75K Despite Fear Signals
Social media sentiment has not yet shown sufficient fear to confirm a market bottom, and Bitcoin could still fall toward $75,000, according to Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich. In a video posted on YouTube on Friday, Balashevich said the price “looks very tempting to come even closer to it.”
A decline to that area would be about 14.77% below Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price of $88,350, according to CoinMarketCap.
Balashevich flags optimistic crowd views as a caution signal
Balashevich said he is cautious because he continues to see confident expectations online that the downtrend will soon reverse, which he noted is uncommon at durable market bottoms. “The crowd isn’t scared enough for a bottom,” Santiment stated in a report released the same day.
He added that in one retail-focused channel, discussion centered on the Bank of Japan and claims that bears were trapped and prices would continue higher. “These kinds of statements are not what I want to see,” he said, noting that under different conditions he would be “very confident” in calling a bottom.
Japan’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% on Friday, a move that has previously coincided with roughly 20% pullbacks in Bitcoin.
Balashevich said a move down toward that zone could offer a “very good setup” for traders.
On Thursday, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, said Bitcoin could “take a year off” in 2026, with the price potentially retracing to around $65,000. By contrast, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has projected 2026 could be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
Market gauges point to elevated fear despite the outlook
While Balashevich is not convinced a bottom is in, several market indicators suggest strong risk aversion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in “Extreme Fear” since Dec. 14 and registered a reading of 20 on Sunday.
Separately, the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, showed a “Bitcoin Season” score of 17 out of 100 on Saturday, indicating risk-off positioning among crypto traders.
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