Bitcoin Post-Quantum Migration May Take 5-10 Years: Lopp
Migrating Bitcoin (BTC) to post-quantum cryptographic standards will likely require at least 5-10 years, according to Bitcoin Core developer and Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp, who weighed in on the ongoing debate over quantum computing risks.
Lopp said he agrees with Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, that quantum computers do not present an immediate threat to Bitcoin. In a post on X, Lopp noted that while the ecosystem will continue to monitor quantum advances, implementing prudent protocol upgrades and coordinating a large-scale migration of funds could take 5 to 10 years. “We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” he added.
He added that moving Bitcoin to post-quantum security is more complex than upgrading centralized software because changes require network-wide consensus across a decentralized system.
Developers and large holders differ with venture capital firms
Debate within the Bitcoin community continues over the timing and severity of the quantum threat, with some long-time supporters urging caution on protocol changes and some venture capital firms arguing the risk is approaching faster than expected.
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard said potential quantum-resistance measures are inexpensive enough to be funded by non-profits and venture capital. He added that a quantum-based attack on Bitcoin would be so costly that it would likely require government subsidies due to the collective action challenge involved.
Samson Mow, CEO of wallet company and advocacy group JAN3, also questioned claims about near-term quantum capabilities, stating that, in practice, quantum computers cannot factor the number 21 — not 21 million, but 21 — without significant algorithmic customization.
Some investors contend that the perceived quantum risk may weigh on BTC’s valuation. Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset investment firm Capriole, said Bitcoin’s price could fall below $50,000 if the protocol is not quantum-ready by 2028. Edwards urged Bitcoin node operators to adopt Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 360, which proposes a quantum-resistant signature scheme for the network.
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