Kraken IPO, M&A may revive crypto’s mid-stage bull cycle
A potential initial public offering (IPO) by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken as soon as next year, along with increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity and additional crypto firms pursuing listings, could help draw more traditional finance capital into the sector, according to Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6 but has not fully recovered following a $19 billion liquidation event that struck the market days later. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $87,015, down 6% over the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko.
Tapiero said the BTC uptrend remains “still mid-stage” and suggested that a Kraken IPO, together with rising M&A, could provide tailwinds that bring new traditional investors into digital assets.
Kraken said on Nov. 18 that it raised $800 million, valuing the exchange at $20 billion. The company reportedly filed for a US IPO earlier in November.
Some market participants expect a different trajectory. Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, anticipates a year of downside for Bitcoin in 2026.
Source: Dan Tapiero
Analysts diverge on whether the bull cycle will persist into 2026
Tapiero’s view contrasts with Timmer’s outlook, which points to a potential local bottom near $65,000 in 2026. “Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ (or ‘off year’) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k,” Timmer wrote in a Thursday post on X.
Source: Jurrien Timmer
While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle offered the “initial rhythm,” market dynamics are increasingly driven by fundamental factors such as global liquidity conditions and ongoing sovereign adoption, said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer of Axis, an onchain quantitative yield platform managing $100 million in live capital.
“It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025,” Xue said, noting that Fidelity’s call for a pullback is a “valid reminder that volatility is still on the table.” However, he added that viewing 2026 strictly as a down year could overlook the broader trend.
“If global liquidity continues to loosen, that $75k support might actually end up being a higher low in a longer, super-cycle structure,” Xue said, adding that the four-year cycle appears to be “evolving into a broader secular trend” influenced by macroeconomic forces.
Smart money traders top perpetual futures positions on Hyperliquid. Source: Nansen
Data from Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform shows that its tracked “smart money” cohort was net short across most major cryptocurrencies, with exceptions including Avalanche (AVAX) and Pump.fun’s (PUMP) token.
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