Quantum computing in 2026: no crypto doomsday, time to prepare
Quantum computing in 2026: No immediate crypto break, but preparations intensify
New Year Special
Concerns that quantum computing could undermine the cryptography behind Bitcoin and other blockchains are reemerging in 2026 as large technology companies increase research and funding. While broad commercial deployment remains distant, activity has accelerated, prompting the digital asset sector to plan for potential long-term risks.
In February, Microsoft introduced its Majorana 1 chip, described as “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” reigniting discussion about how rapidly quantum hardware could transition from labs to real applications.
Despite the heightened attention, most specialists view the threat to crypto as theoretical in the near term. They point instead to an emerging operational risk: adversaries archiving encrypted data today in anticipation of future decryption capabilities.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, said he expects quantum computing to have “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026. Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, argued that the “quantum threat to Bitcoin” narrative is primarily marketing at this stage, adding that practical machines capable of breaking current cryptography are likely at least a decade away.
Why cryptocurrencies are at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) and other major networks use public-key cryptography to secure wallets and validate transactions. Private keys authorize transactions, public keys verify them, and hashing protects the ledger. If a future quantum system could derive private keys from public keys, funds could be compromised at scale.
SEC reviews proposal to make crypto quantum-resistant. Source: Bitcoin Archive
Experts generally agree that digital signatures present the most significant vulnerability. Sofiia Kireieva, blockchain R&D and subject-matter expert at Boosty Labs, noted that schemes dependent on problems efficiently solved by Shor’s algorithm—such as factoring large semiprimes—are at risk. She said that for Bitcoin and similar blockchains, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for key pairs is the “weakest link,” while SHA-256 hash functions are far less exposed; Grover’s algorithm offers only a quadratic speed-up that can be mitigated by larger hash sizes.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of Switzerland-based O Foundation, also identified signatures as the critical exposure point, adding that address reuse significantly increases risk because it reveals public keys onchain.
What experts expect in 2026
Barriers in physics and engineering make a cryptographic break by 2026 unlikely. Kireieva said current devices operate with only hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits—far below what is required for deep algorithms like Shor’s. A feasible attack would require millions of physical qubits, ultra-low gate error rates, and the capability to run millions of sequential operations without decoherence. She added that breakthroughs in materials science, quantum control, fabrication, and signal isolation would also be necessary, calling the bottleneck “the fundamental physics of the universe.”
A quantum computer would be able to derive a private key from a public key. Source: Anduro
Alexander argued that quantum computers are unlikely to break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2026 and may never do so with current approaches. He said advances in classical computing present a more immediate concern and that compromising public-key cryptography at scale would require fundamentally new algorithms—quantum or otherwise.
The “harvest now, decrypt later” problem
The near-term risk centers on data collection. Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, said a quantum attack in 2026 is highly unlikely, but malicious actors are already storing as much encrypted information as possible so it can be decrypted once the technology matures.
Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, said a common scenario is “harvest now, decrypt later,” in which adversaries stockpile sensitive encrypted data for future decryption. More than half of TLS 1.3 traffic is using post-quantum (PQ) encryption. Source: Cloudflare Radar
Shadid added that attackers could be downloading terabytes of publicly available onchain data to collect public keys today, with the intent to reconstruct private keys when quantum capabilities arrive.
Millions of Bitcoin remain exposed: How is crypto preparing?
Kireieva estimated that 25%–30% of all BTC—around 4 million coins—reside in vulnerable addresses whose public keys have already been revealed onchain, making them more susceptible to private-key recovery by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.
She advised users to minimize risk by avoiding address reuse, keeping public keys hidden until funds are spent, and preparing to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets and address formats as they become available.
In July, cryptography experts proposed a path to transition Bitcoin’s current signature schemes to quantum-resistant alternatives, noting that roughly a quarter of Bitcoin’s supply is already exposed due to onchain public key disclosure.
In November, Qastle outlined plans to enhance hot wallet security by upgrading cryptographic components behind the scenes. The approach uses quantum-generated randomness and post-quantum encryption to protect keys, transactions, and communications without requiring additional hardware or complex setup.
While a quantum-driven collapse of crypto security is not expected in 2026, the conversation is shifting from “if” to “when.” Fan said the probability of a major quantum attack by 2026 is low-to-moderate, but the likelihood that quantum computing becomes a top-tier security consideration for crypto in 2026 is high.
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