Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Rises; Next Adjustment Jan 8, 2026
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The Bitcoin (BTC) network’s mining difficulty — the measure of how challenging it is to add a new block — inched up to 148.2 trillion in the final adjustment of 2025 and is expected to increase again in January 2026.
The next difficulty retarget is projected for January 8, 2026, at block height 931,392, with an estimated level of 149 trillion, according to CoinWarz. Average block times are currently about 9.95 minutes, slightly faster than the 10-minute target, indicating a likely upward adjustment to bring intervals back toward the goal.
The Bitcoin mining difficulty history from 2014-2025. Source: CoinWarz
Mining difficulty set new all-time highs in 2025, including two notable increases in September during Bitcoin’s price uptrend, before the market sold off in October.
Higher difficulty raises the computing and energy requirements for miners to remain competitive, adding pressure in an already capital-intensive industry.
Difficulty adjustments help preserve decentralization and Bitcoin’s price dynamics
The difficulty mechanism regulates block production by adjusting the computational threshold required to successfully mine and append new blocks to Bitcoin’s distributed ledger.
Retargets occur every 2016 blocks, roughly every two weeks, based on the observed average block time. If blocks are being mined too quickly, difficulty increases to maintain the 10-minute target; if too slowly, it decreases.
A gauge showing block progress toward the next adjustment period. Source: CoinWarz
This dynamic adjustment limits the ability of any single miner to rapidly deploy disproportionate hash power and gain outsized influence, supporting a decentralized network.
A 51% attack can occur if one miner or a coordinated group controls the majority of total computing power, enabling potential double-spending and undermining Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which could significantly affect price.
Bitcoin’s network hashrate, a proxy for aggregate computing power securing the protocol, continues to trend higher. Source: CryptoQuant
Even without a 51% attack, a miner with substantial resources could mine blocks at an accelerated pace, collect the block rewards, and sell the BTC, increasing selling pressure.
By aligning difficulty with total network hash power, Bitcoin maintains a predictable issuance schedule and supports decentralization, which helps limit undue supply shocks to the market.
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