Crypto Lags Gold, Stocks; 2026 Could See Catch-Up Potential
The cryptocurrency market has underperformed gold and U.S. equities into year-end, but 2026 could provide an opportunity to narrow the gap, according to market intelligence firm Santiment.
In a post on X on Tuesday, Santiment analysts noted that Bitcoin (BTC) continues to lag behind gold and the S&P 500, both of which have seen modest rebounds following a November sell-off. Since the beginning of November, gold is up 9%, the S&P 500 has gained 1%, and Bitcoin is down 20%, trading around $88,000 as of Wednesday. Santiment added that the correlation between crypto and other major sectors remains subdued, but there is still scope for crypto to catch up heading into 2026.
Large holders remain on the sidelines
Santiment said renewed buying by large holders could be an early indicator of a market turn. The firm observed that in the second half of 2025, smaller wallets accumulated aggressively while larger wallets were largely flat—rising into the October all-time high and then selling. Large holders are often viewed as influential participants whose activity can affect liquidity and sentiment. Santiment added that historically, bear markets tend to transition when large wallets accumulate as retail investors reduce exposure.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have also paused selling for the first time in six months, after reducing their combined holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December.
Rotation back into crypto may already have started
Garrett Jin, former CEO of the now-defunct exchange BitForex, suggested that some traders may already be reallocating from other asset classes back into cryptocurrencies.
On-chain data from Nansen shows the number of active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% over the last 24 hours, while transaction count fell by nearly 30%.
Jin said on Tuesday that the short squeeze in metals had ended as expected and that capital was beginning to flow into crypto. Responding to a user question about whether precious metals investors also buy crypto, he added that capital tends to “sell high and buy low.”
Separately, investor and market analyst CyrilXBT described current positioning as typical of a late-cycle phase ahead of a shift. He said that when liquidity turns and BTC breaks structure, gold tends to cool, Bitcoin leads, Ether follows, and altcoins move later. He added that markets typically move ahead of narratives and that the current period tests investor conviction.
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