Crypto 2026: Bitcoin, Stablecoin Infrastructure, Tokenized Assets

After a turbulent 2025 that defied many market expectations, investors are recalibrating their approach to digital assets in 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) topped out broadly in line with prior halving-cycle timing, but the anticipated blow-off top did not occur, and gains did not broadly rotate into altcoins. Sentiment entering 2026 remains cautious, even as institutions, corporations and regulators increasingly align on frameworks that could support wider adoption.

Market structure appears to be shifting as long-horizon institutional capital exerts greater influence over price and liquidity, potentially reducing the dominance of traditional drivers such as miners, long-term holders and large onchain addresses. Against this backdrop, three investment themes are set to be closely watched in 2026: Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics, stablecoin infrastructure and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

Bitcoin: Cycle dynamics and institutional flows

Bitcoin has entered its fourth halving epoch. Historically, the strongest bull-market phase followed each halving, with prior cycle peaks arriving roughly 12 to 18 months afterward. Source: Hunter Horsley

If past patterns were to hold, Bitcoin may have set a cycle high in October 2025 after rising more than 600% from the 2022 lows. While consistent with earlier post-bear-market recoveries, such performance underscores diminishing marginal returns as the asset class matures.

Some analysts argue the four-year cadence is losing relevance. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen contend that in 2026 Bitcoin could break the traditional cycle and reach new all-time highs, citing structural changes that have diluted the impact of halving-related supply shocks, interest-rate volatility and leveraged speculation.

The role of leverage appears reduced after a broad deleveraging event in October 2025, when liquidations erased billions in open interest. That reset, they say, lowers the likelihood of a classic, speculation-driven blow-off top.

Institutional adoption is viewed as the primary driver. The 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds opened distribution channels, and flows may accelerate in 2026 as major wealth platforms, including Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch, expand access and begin allocating on behalf of clients.

Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could further ease financial conditions, historically supportive for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Research from Julien Bittel, a Chartered Financial Analyst at Global Macro Investor, suggests Bitcoin’s performance is more closely linked to business and liquidity cycles than to halving schedules. Bittel’s work indicates the current cycle could extend well into 2026, challenging the notion that a fixed four-year rhythm still governs outcomes.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has entered deeply oversold territory on the relative strength index, levels that, in past cycles, have preceded sharp trend reversals. Source: Julien Bittel

Stablecoin infrastructure: Scaling a core utility layer

Stablecoins have emerged as one of the clearest real-world applications of blockchain. Over the past 18 months, their circulating supply has expanded rapidly to more than $300 billion, led by dollar-pegged tokens such as USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC). Initially a trading tool, stablecoins now underpin payments, settlement and onchain liquidity.

Policy advances have supported this transition. In mid-2025, U.S. lawmakers advanced the GENIUS Act to establish standards for issuance, reserves and oversight, aiming to bring stablecoin issuers under a defined regulatory regime while preserving space for innovation.

Regulators also outlined potential bank participation. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed rulemaking pathways that would permit regulated banks to issue payment stablecoins through approved subsidiaries, creating links between stablecoins and traditional banking infrastructure.

On July 18, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law.

Within this framework, stablecoins are increasingly seen as multipurpose instruments, enabling faster cross-border transfers, onchain settlement and yield-bearing products backed by short-term U.S. government debt. Policymakers have also highlighted their potential to reinforce the global role of the U.S. dollar, particularly in markets with limited access to dollar-based banking.

Adoption is broadening beyond the United States. Euro-pegged and emerging-market currency stablecoins are gaining traction, positioning stablecoins as a global settlement layer rather than a solely dollar-centric product.

While dollar-pegged stablecoins themselves are designed to maintain parity and offer little price appreciation, the underlying infrastructure may offer investment exposure. That stack includes issuers, custodians, compliance providers, blockchain networks and payment rails that mint, redeem, settle and safeguard stablecoins at scale.

Equity markets are reflecting the theme. Circle, the issuer of USDC, made a high-profile public debut, and PayPal Holdings launched a dollar-backed stablecoin, signaling that established fintech firms view stablecoins as a core component of future payment systems.

Tokenized RWAs: From pilots to scaled deployment

Comments from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink that the “tokenization of all assets” is beginning have drawn wider attention to this use case, signaling that blockchain-based representations of traditional assets are moving into mainstream finance.

RWA tokenization has evolved into a heavily institution-led segment. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Goldman Sachs have launched or participated in tokenized funds, bonds and settlement platforms, placing conventional assets directly on blockchain infrastructure.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) has become the largest tokenized fund to date, with close to $2 billion in assets. Source: RWA.xyz

Industry data show tokenized RWAs surpassed $30 billion in onchain value by 2025, with private credit and U.S. Treasury–backed products leading early adoption. Institutions have been drawn to the potential for yield and faster settlement while retaining exposure to familiar asset classes.

The scope is broadening to tokenized equities and equity-like instruments, particularly outside the United States. Exchanges and fintech platforms are exploring blockchain-based representations of stocks and exchange-traded products. Kraken’s rollout of tokenized equities across select international markets highlights demand for 24/7, programmable access to traditional assets.

Crypto-native firms are positioning for a tokenized future. Following Coinbase’s signal of a push into stock trading, Brian Huang, CEO of Coinbase-backed portfolio manager Glider, said the move could serve as a strategic on-ramp to tokenized assets, citing the exchange’s regulatory posture and custody capabilities.

Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, has linked RWA growth to regulatory developments, changes in leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and broader industry adoption of blockchain technology. Source: CNBC Television

For investors, RWAs offer a structural rather than purely speculative thesis: faster settlement, reduced counterparty risk and global accessibility. As regulatory frameworks mature and incumbents expand onchain offerings, tokenized assets are positioned to remain a durable theme heading into 2026.

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