Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to regain momentum as 2026 liquidity grows
Bitcoin could set new all-time highs as soon as 2026, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasting a rebound driven by an expansion in U.S. dollar liquidity.
In a post on Wednesday, Hayes said Bitcoin’s recovery depends on broader monetary conditions. “If gold and the Nasdaq have the juice, how is Bitcoin going to get its groove back? Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen,” he wrote, adding that he expects this to occur in 2026 in his substack post.
Hayes cited several potential drivers of a “drastic increase” in dollar liquidity next year, including growth in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, a decline in mortgage rates as financial conditions ease, and increased lending by commercial banks to U.S. government-backed strategic sectors.
Hayes: U.S. military posture to sustain defense financing needs
Hayes said the United States will continue to project military strength, which he argued necessitates ongoing weapons production financed through the commercial banking system.
Monetary expansion typically supports risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, as investors position for potential inflation and a weaker dollar. Bitcoin is up 12.20% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
According to Hayes, dollar liquidity tightened in 2025 and Bitcoin declined alongside it, while the Nasdaq diverged due to artificial intelligence becoming “nationalized by both China and America.”
He added that executive actions and government funding under President Trump have muted market signals, channeling capital into AI-related areas regardless of underlying returns.
Technology led U.S. equities in 2025
Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector in 2025, delivering a total return of 24.6%, which was 6.6% higher than the S&P 500 Index’s overall return of 18% according to investing.com.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 14.40% in 2025, while gold gained 44.40% for the year, according to Curvo data.
Hayes said crypto underperformance in 2025 reflected liquidity conditions rather than a change in fundamentals. He described Bitcoin as “monetary technology,” adding that its value is tied to the degree of fiat currency debasement.
He argued this dynamic ensures Bitcoin’s value remains above zero, but that pushing the price toward roughly 100,000 U.S. dollars would require continued fiat monetary debasement.
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