ISM Manufacturing PMI hits 52.6; analysts assess Bitcoin
A key gauge of U.S. manufacturing posted its strongest monthly reading since August 2022, a development some crypto analysts say could precede a recovery in Bitcoin, which is trading at $78,000.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 52.6 in January, surpassing market expectations of about 48.5 and ending 26 straight months of contraction, according to an ISM report released Monday. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM last recorded a reading above 52.6 in August 2022.
ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index since Jan. 2016. Source: Trading Economics
Analysts noted that the stronger-than-expected print may mark a shift for Bitcoin after it fell to a 10-month low of $75,442 on Monday. Historical data show the PMI’s rise and fall from mid-2020 through 2023 largely moved in tandem with Bitcoin’s price over the same period.
Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, said past PMI reversals have often coincided with “risk-on” market conditions, highlighting Bitcoin rallies following increases in the manufacturing output index in 2013, 2016, and 2020. Pseudonymous analyst Plan C argued that viewing Bitcoin through the broader business cycle rather than a four-year halving lens may be critical to catching the next leg of the market uptrend.
Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, cautioned that Bitcoin does not always track the manufacturing index, noting that Bitcoin is not the economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined or held flat over several months last year while Bitcoin advanced toward its $126,080 high.
BTC price forecasts vary widely
Bitcoin has experienced choppy trading since the Oct. 10 liquidation event, when more than $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out. At current levels, Bitcoin is down nearly 38% from its October peak, while precious metals and equities have generally trended higher, weighing on market sentiment.
Institutional outlooks for 2026 diverge. In a 2026 outlook, crypto venture firm Dragonfly projected Bitcoin would trade above $150,000 by year-end. Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said on Jan. 20 that Bitcoin could retreat further before rebounding later and setting a new high. Galaxy Digital refrained from offering a specific target, calling 2026 “too chaotic” to forecast, with potential outcomes ranging from $50,000 to $250,000.
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