Arthur Hayes: AI Job Losses May Trigger Credit Crisis, Boost BTC
Arthur Hayes said the recent divergence between Bitcoin and major U.S. technology stocks signals a potential artificial intelligence–driven credit shock that could prompt renewed central bank liquidity and push Bitcoin to record highs. In a blog post published Wednesday, the crypto entrepreneur described Bitcoin as a barometer for global fiat liquidity and one of the fastest-reacting assets to changes in the fiat credit supply.
Hayes cautioned that the widening gap between Bitcoin (BTC) and the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 Index indicates that a significant credit contraction could be approaching. He added that when historically correlated assets decouple, it merits closer examination of potential catalysts for fiat and credit destruction, or deflation, particularly in U.S. dollars.
He argued that job losses stemming from AI adoption could materially weaken consumer credit and mortgage performance due to the risk that white-collar workers may struggle to meet monthly obligations. Hayes acknowledged the projection is bold but maintained that AI-related disruptions could pressure household balance sheets at scale.
AI-related layoffs could precede renewed banking stress
In early February, CBS News reported that in 2025 companies cited AI when announcing 55,000 job cuts, more than 12 times the number attributed to AI two years prior.
Hayes said such dynamics would likely restart aggressive monetary expansion. Citing an internal framework, he estimated that a 20% reduction among the roughly 72 million U.S. “knowledge workers” could translate into about $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses, equivalent to a 13% write-down of U.S. commercial bank equity.
He speculated that weaker regional banks could be the first to falter, prompting deposit outflows and a freeze in credit markets. According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve would eventually respond with substantial liquidity support. He argued that this anticipated expansion of fiat credit would likely lift Bitcoin off its lows and that expectations of additional fiat creation to stabilize the banking system could help drive BTC to a new all-time high.
Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes said Maelstrom intends to allocate excess stablecoins to Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) once the Fed signals a policy pivot.
Hayes has previously outlined similar liquidity scenarios
In January, Hayes argued that the Federal Reserve would expand its balance sheet to help ease strains linked to the Japanese bond market. In December 2025, he predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by March, citing money creation via a Fed liquidity facility known as Reserve Management Purchases, which he said resembles quantitative easing.
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