Economist expects higher Bitcoin by December amid divided views
Half of the past 24 months closed higher for Bitcoin, a pattern that economist Timothy Peterson says points to an 88% probability the cryptocurrency will trade above its current level by December.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” Peterson wrote in an X post on Saturday.
In 2025, Bitcoin recorded monthly gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson said his approach evaluates the count of positive months within any rolling 24-month window to help identify potential inflection points.
Source: Timothy Peterson
On prediction platform Polymarket, traders assign a 17% probability that December will be Bitcoin’s best-performing month of 2026, just behind November at 18%. Historically, November has been the strongest month for Bitcoin on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, per CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin was trading at $68,173 at the time of publication, nearly 25% below its level at the start of this year, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin started trading at around $80,000 in February. Source: CoinMarketCap
Market views remain mixed. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday he expects “next week to be green for BTC,” adding it would close the month with “a massive candle” after a run of five consecutive red months.
Broader sentiment has weakened. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index posted an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9 on Sunday, indicating heightened caution among market participants.
However, analytics firm Santiment reported on Friday that the recent “drying up” of Bitcoin price forecasts across social media is a constructive sign, with sentiment reverting toward “neutral” levels.
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