CFTC eyes perpetual futures, ECB stablecoin risks, Iran outflows
Key developments in crypto on Tuesday included remarks from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair on a timeline for cryptocurrency perpetual futures, new European Central Bank (ECB) research on stablecoins’ potential impact on banks and monetary policy, and a spike in outflows from Iran’s largest crypto exchange following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.
CFTC chair signals path to crypto perpetual futures ‘within the next month or so’
Michael Selig, chair of the CFTC, said the regulator expects to address how to oversee perpetual futures contracts for digital assets in the United States “within the next month or so.” He made the comments during a Tuesday panel hosted by the Milken Institute in Washington, DC, indicating progress toward enabling “true perpetual futures” domestically.
Selig is currently the agency’s only Senate-confirmed commissioner, and as of Tuesday there was no indication that U.S. President Donald Trump would nominate candidates to fill the four vacant commissioner seats. Selig also said that actions by the prior administration pushed many firms and liquidity offshore, speaking alongside SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
ECB: Stablecoins may reduce bank deposits and weaken policy transmission in Europe
The ECB warned that wider stablecoin adoption could draw funds away from traditional bank deposits and dampen the transmission of monetary policy to lending, according to a working paper, “Stablecoins and Monetary Policy Transmission,” released Tuesday.
ECB staff reported that rising interest in stablecoins is associated with a measurable decline in retail bank deposits and reduced lending to firms, which could limit credit provision to the real economy. The analysis noted that effects are nonlinear and depend on the scale of adoption, design characteristics, and regulatory treatment.
The paper forms part of the ECB’s ongoing monitoring of stablecoins, whose market capitalization has more than doubled over the past three years to $312 billion and is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2028. It added that banks rely on deposits as a stable, low-cost funding source for lending; when deposits fall, institutions may shift to wholesale or market-based funding, which is typically more expensive and less stable.
Actual and expected stablecoin market development. Source: ECB (Citigroup, Coinbase, JPMorgan)
Iranian crypto outflows jump 700% after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes
Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, recorded a sharp increase in withdrawals within minutes of U.S. and Israeli strikes in Tehran on Saturday, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. Outflows rose by more than 700% to over $500,000 shortly after the initial strikes, later reaching nearly $3 million in a single hour that day.
Crypto outflows on Nobitex from late February to March 1. Source: Elliptic
Elliptic said the surge likely indicates capital flight, with early traces showing many funds moving to foreign crypto exchanges to facilitate transfers outside Iran while bypassing some scrutiny of the global banking system. Outflows then dropped markedly after Saturday, which TRM Labs attributed to strict internet blackouts enforced by Iranian authorities. TRM reported that nationwide connectivity fell by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict escalated.
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