Bitcoin bull signal: 5 things to know this week

Bitcoin bull signal talk is back as momentum improves on the weekly chart, but the setup is still competing with forced liquidations, a jump in oil prices and a geopolitical deadline that could overpower technical momentum this week.

Why the weekly MACD setup is drawing attention

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is nearing its first bullish weekly MACD crossover since May 2025. The same report said the last comparable signal preceded a roughly $25,000 advance, which is why traders are treating this week’s chart setup as notable rather than routine.

On the BTC/USD weekly chart at TradingView, price is also attempting to reclaim the 200-week EMA. That pairing matters because the weekly MACD tracks momentum shifts while the 200-week EMA is a long-term trend gauge, so seeing both improve at once can signal trend repair without guaranteeing a breakout.

In plain language, the MACD compares short-term and long-term momentum on the same chart. When the faster line crosses above the slower line on a weekly timeframe, traders read it as evidence that downside momentum is fading and upside momentum is starting to rebuild.

The key caveat is confirmation. Until the weekly MACD crossover actually completes on a weekly close, the market has a promising setup, not a finished bull trigger.

What price action and liquidations say about conviction

Bitcoin traded near $69,807.19, putting the market back within reach of the $70,000 area. That rebound matters because a clean hold above a reclaimed breakout zone can confirm demand, while a brief spike through it can still turn into a failed retest.

The near-$70,000 retest also matters because the market is effectively checking whether the move back through prior resistance can become support. That is a stronger signal of conviction than the rebound itself, especially after a fast squeeze higher.

Coinglass liquidation data showed more than $250 million in forced closes over 24 hours as Bitcoin moved back above its old 2021 all-time highs. That spike signals crowded positioning being unwound, which can confirm stress in the market without proving that the move already has durable conviction.

Reclaiming the zone above the old 2021 all-time highs matters because it turns a long-watched ceiling into a test of support. For a market trying to prove a new bullish phase, that conversion usually matters more than the headline spike itself.

A CryptoQuant Quicktake on accelerating Binance speculative activity adds to that reading. When liquidations and speculative activity rise together, the market is still repricing quickly rather than settling into a fully confirmed uptrend.

Confidence questions are not limited to price action. Recent reports such as USDC Freeze Controversy: ZachXBT Alleges Circle Froze 16 Legit Wallets show why retail participants remain sensitive to any sign that market structure is becoming less predictable.

How oil, inflation risk and geopolitics could override the chart

According to Cointelegraph, President Donald Trump set a Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, described as “Bridge Day,” tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Because the Strait is central to global oil flows, that deadline matters for Bitcoin this week even though it sits outside crypto itself.

The macro transmission channel is oil. The Kobeissi Letter wrote that WTI above $115 per barrel, if sustained for roughly ~7 weeks, could lift US CPI inflation toward ~3.7%. That combination can pressure risk assets because higher energy costs and firmer inflation expectations make liquidity-sensitive trades harder to sustain.

Oil prices are now crossing above $115/barrel in the US.

As a result, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another ~7 weeks, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.7%.

This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

Amid the surge,…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 5, 2026

This is why Bitcoin’s macro calendar is unusually compressed this week. A chart signal that develops over a weekly timeframe now has to coexist with a Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline that can move oil and risk pricing in hours.

Policy risk is also being filtered through existing concerns about crypto banking access, a theme explored in US Banking Group Slams Coinbase Conditional Trust Approval Over Crypto Banking Risks. For Bitcoin, the takeaway is practical: a still-forming weekly MACD signal can be delayed or distorted if oil and geopolitics keep traders focused on macro risk.

What could invalidate the bullish case

Cointelegraph said some analysts still see a bear flag that could point Bitcoin toward the mid-$40,000 range. That downside scenario matters because a drop toward the mid-$40,000s would overwhelm an unconfirmed weekly MACD improvement.

The short-term test is whether Bitcoin can defend the reclaimed breakout area while the weekly MACD is still unconfirmed and the 200-week EMA remains contested. If price loses that area first, traders would be treating the recovery as a failed retest rather than a clean trend reversal.

Crypto Seth wrote on X that “Holding this level is crucial for the entire #Crypto industry” as MACD approaches a bullish cross at the 200W. His point matches the broader data: the market has improving weekly structure, but it has not yet proved it can hold the level that structure depends on.

$BTC MACD about to cross bullish right at the 200W 🙏

Holding this level is crucial for the entire #Crypto industry.

If God wills it. https://t.co/siWII4KEK8 pic.twitter.com/0hgX7ilaez

— Crypto Seth (@seth_fin) April 6, 2026

The cleanest way to frame the week is that the bullish evidence is real, but still fragile. An unconfirmed weekly MACD, a fight around the 200-week EMA, oil above $115 and more than $250 million in liquidations describe a market that can still swing sharply in either direction.

Five things Bitcoin traders should watch next

• Whether the weekly MACD confirms on the next weekly close instead of remaining only an approaching crossover.
• Whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $70,000 area after returning to the zone around prior highs.
• Whether liquidations keep expanding and whether Binance speculative activity cools or accelerates.
• Whether oil above $115 per barrel keeps pushing inflation expectations toward ~3.7%.
• Whether the Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline leads to de-escalation, and whether oil-driven inflation fears begin to harden the near-term Fed outlook.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.