Analyst: Bitcoin short-term bottom, eyes potential $100K rebound
Bitcoin may be establishing a short-term floor after an extended decline, with one market analyst indicating conditions could support a relief rally toward the $100,000–$110,000 range.
In a recent video, trader Mister Crypto said Bitcoin’s (BTC) near-term structure appears to be stabilizing following what he described as market-wide “capitulation.” He added that positioning data suggests larger market participants have started opening new long positions even as sentiment has fallen into “extreme fear,” a combination that has historically preceded rebounds during downturns.
One key signal cited was the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is approaching the 30 level. According to the analyst, this area has closely aligned with cycle bottoms in the past. While he emphasized that this does not confirm the start of a new bull market, he said it often indicates the potential for at least a short-term reversal.
$102,000 level in focus
The analysis also highlighted Bitcoin’s distance from its 50-week moving average, currently near $102,000. In prior cycles, Bitcoin has typically rebounded toward this level after moving below it. The current expectation, according to the analyst, is a bounce that could return prices to six figures before a clearer longer-term trend develops.
Macro factors were also cited as supportive in the near term, including expectations that quantitative tightening may be nearing an end and speculation about another interest rate cut at an upcoming policy meeting. Such developments generally ease financial conditions and can benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
The outlook beyond the short term remains guarded. The analyst said the broader market backdrop still appears bearish and warned that any rally could be followed by renewed weakness if macro and market conditions do not shift decisively toward sustained growth.
Crypto sentiment lifts from ‘extreme fear’
After spending 18 days in “Extreme Fear,” the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved up to a “Fear” reading of 28.
Separately, Bitwise Europe research head André Dragosch said Bitcoin could have significant upside potential, arguing that the current price does not reflect improving macro expectations. He described Bitcoin’s setup as “asymmetric” from a risk-reward standpoint, drawing a comparison to the COVID-related sell-off in March 2020, when prices dropped sharply before a strong recovery. Dragosch said markets appear to be pricing in an extremely bleak global outlook.
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