Arthur Hayes Warns Monad’s Token Risks, Backs Crypto Rally
Crypto investor Arthur Hayes cautioned that Monad, a newly launched layer-1 blockchain, could decline by as much as 99%, describing it as a high-risk project driven by venture funding rather than organic demand. In an interview on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX CEO called it “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token design exposes retail participants to significant downside.
FDV, or Fully Diluted Value, refers to the market capitalization a crypto asset would have if all tokens were in circulation. This is particularly relevant when considering crypto assets like Monad.
Hayes said projects with a wide gap between FDV and circulating supply often see early price surges followed by heavy selling once insider allocations unlock. He added that most new layer-1 networks fail to achieve lasting relevance despite initial rallies. Hayes said only a small group of protocols is likely to endure, naming Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Zcash (ZEC).
Monad, which raised $225 million last year from venture firm Paradigm, went live on Monday alongside an airdrop of its MON token.
Monad’s MON token up 40% since launch. Source: CoinMarketCap
Hayes’ broader market outlook
Hayes outlined a constructive view for the crypto market overall, citing expectations of renewed monetary easing. He said governments, particularly in the United States, appear poised to inject additional liquidity amid election campaigns and slowing growth. “We are at the end of the beginning of this cycle and the large wave of bull-market money printing is ahead,” he said.
He also downplayed the significance of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, asserting that prior booms were driven by global credit expansion led by the U.S. and China. When liquidity tightens, he said, Bitcoin tends to react first, calling it the “last free-market smoke alarm” for the global financial system.
Privacy technologies in focus
Looking ahead, Hayes expects privacy-related technologies to lead the next major narrative, including zero-knowledge systems and privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. He also said institutional activity is likely to consolidate around Ethereum, particularly through stablecoins and tokenized financial instruments.
Earlier this month, Hayes said Zcash had become the second-largest position held by his family office, Maelstrom, after Bitcoin.
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