Bitcoin ends 2025 in red post-halving, 4-year cycle debated
Bitcoin ended 2025 below its starting level, marking the first post-halving year in which the asset finished in the red and breaking from outcomes seen after prior halvings.
Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes a halving roughly every four years, reducing mining rewards and slowing the issuance of new coins. Historically, this schedule has been followed by a post-halving advance that culminates in a peak, then a sharp pullback and a multi-year downturn.
After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin closed the following year at a new high; similar patterns occurred in 2016 and 2020. This cycle, however, diverged. Despite the latest halving in April 2024, BTC is trading more than 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct 6 and finished the year lower than it began, according to CoinGecko.
Source: Charlie Bilello
The four-year cycle has often served as a framework for anticipating broad crypto market behavior.
Analysts flagged an end to the four-year cycle for months
Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, said on X that Bitcoin closing the year down shows the four-year cycle is “officially dead.”
Source: Vivek Sen
Investor Armando Pantoja echoed that view, attributing the shift to the participation of new market participants, including ETFs, institutions, and companies. He said Bitcoin trading now responds to liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitics rather than a strict halving timetable. Pantoja added that while the halving remains relevant, more supply is held off the market, miners have broader financing options, and price movements are less automatic than in earlier cycles. Armando Pantoja views on Bitcoin trading.
Industry views split on the four-year cycle
Several executives — including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, and Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley — said during 2025 that the four-year pattern had run its course. Their views were publicly shared on multiple platforms including Bitcoinlfgo.
Others argue the cycle persists but is unfolding differently. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in a December episode of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle remains in place, though no longer primarily driven by programmed supply cuts.
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