Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts
Bitcoin’s recent price moves suggest selling pressure may be easing, though analysts caution there is no clear sign of a shift out of a broader bear market.
In a market update on Tuesday, 10x Research said Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, indicating that downside momentum may be fading. The firm noted that Bitcoin (BTC) was reclaiming the 20-day moving average near $68,500 and that Bollinger Bands were tightening, creating conditions for potential range expansion.
BTC briefly climbed to just above $70,000 on Coinbase in late trading on Monday before easing to around $68,400 at the time of writing, according to TradingView. The $62,500 level has held through three separate tests, reinforcing it as a key support, 10x Research added. The firm also highlighted emerging bullish divergences, with both the relative strength index and stochastic indicators trending higher—early signs that momentum may be stabilizing within a broader bearish structure.
Bitcoin vs. daily stochastics. Source: 10x Research
A tactical shift but no structural reversal
10x Research said the evidence points to a meaningful tactical shift but not a confirmed structural turn. With volatility compressing, ETF flows strengthening, and the Coinbase discount disappearing, these are not features of a market accelerating into a new leg lower. However, its broader allocation framework still classifies Bitcoin as in a bear-market regime, implying any bullish positioning should remain tactical rather than structural.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said on Tuesday that while numerous macro and crypto-native developments had pressured prices, conditions have recently moved from “frantic to somewhat measured,” favoring consolidation, accumulation, or a range-bound period. He added that the limited impact of selling pressure despite tariffs, the prospect of conflict, and earlier disappointment over rate cuts suggests sellers may be exhausted or that buyers are averaging in at these levels.
Deeply negative funding rates triggered a bounce
Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima said Bitcoin’s downside momentum is fading primarily due to deeply negative funding rates in derivatives markets. According to him, this led to overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and a classic short squeeze, with prices rebounding sharply from $63,000 lows, forcing heavy liquidations and easing selling pressure through tactical relief.
Negative funding rates mean short sellers are paying longs to maintain positions. Adziima added that a confirmed trend reversal has not emerged, citing the absence of structural inflows, a lack of macro catalysts, and a continuing downtrend from the all-time high amid fragile liquidity and nearby resistance.
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