Bitcoin’s 200-Day Trend Turns Bearish as Analysts Debate
A long-term Bitcoin trend indicator has flipped bearish, prompting at least one market analyst to suggest the bull market may have ended.
“From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over,” crypto analyst “Crypto₿irb” told his 700,000 X followers on Thursday. He said Bitcoin (BTC) shows a “persistent trend shift, confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth,” adding that he expects 2026 to be a year of declines.
The analysis pointed to a downturn in the 200-day trend, a charting tool often used to connect key points and assess trend strength or potential breakouts.
Separately, the 200-day moving average — which tracks the average BTC price over the prior 200 days — turned lower in mid-November when a “death cross” occurred as it fell below the shorter-term 50-day moving average. These metrics are closely watched as long-term support references and signals of bull or bear market conditions.
More bear-market calls for Bitcoin
“There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” said Markus Thielen of 10x Research. He added that the market is currently in “a bear market reversal rally.”
However, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer at crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, said the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries (DATs) seen in H1 this year is behind us, but it “doesn’t mean we are in a bear market.” He added, “The direction going forward will be determined by risk assets in general, and being selective as an investor will be more important than ever.”
Short-term setup offers some relief for bulls
Crypto analyst “Skew” said Thursday that, on a four-hour chart, conditions are “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls,” with momentum to the upside if buyers and the broader market can build strength.
He added that a move back below $88,000 “would be a sign of weakness and failed momentum to drive higher,” while the $90,000 to $92,000 zone is an “initial area for the market to fight over structural trend.”
BTC came just shy of $92,000 on Coinbase during early trading on Thursday before easing to $91,200 at the time of publication.
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