Bitwise analyst: Bitcoin risk-reward echoes COVID-era setup
Bitcoin’s current valuation may be misaligned with forward macroeconomic conditions, creating what one analyst describes as a favorable risk-reward profile similar to the COVID-19 period. Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch said in an X post on Friday that the setup resembles March 2020, when pandemic concerns pushed Bitcoin (BTC) from around $8,000 to below $5,000. He added that BTC is also reflecting “the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a period associated with aggressive quantitative tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
Bitcoin seen “pricing in” a recessionary backdrop
Dragosch said Bitcoin is effectively discounting a recessionary growth scenario and has already reflected “a lot of the bad news.” On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States was not at risk of entering a recession in 2026 according to CNBC report.
Bitcoin is down 17.33% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
After setting new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, Bitcoin moved into a downtrend following a $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, which occurred shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Market sentiment weakened further when Bitcoin fell below the psychological $100,000 threshold on Nov. 13 and has not yet reclaimed it. While it briefly slipped under $90,000 on Nov. 20, the price rebounded above that level a few days later.
Dragosch said global growth is likely to improve from here, supported by “preceding monetary stimulus,” which he believes could bolster activity into 2026, paralleling the post-COVID recovery. He said the current backdrop appears to present a similar macro configuration.
Market participants question a prolonged bear phase
Other analysts are also anticipating a rebound. Crypto trader Alessio Rastani said the recent decline may not mark the start of a long bear cycle, noting that historical patterns have preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time.
Separately, BitMine chair Tom Lee said on Wednesday that he expects Bitcoin to recover $100,000 before year-end and potentially set fresh all-time highs.
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