Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin to See Strong, Steady Returns This Decade
Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to deliver steady gains over the next decade, though outsized year-over-year advances are less probable, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. Speaking on CNBC on Friday, Hougan described the outlook as a 10-year upward grind featuring strong, but not spectacular, returns with reduced volatility and periodic fluctuations.
Hougan reiterated his view that 2026 should be a positive year for Bitcoin, a forecast he first outlined in July, ahead of the asset’s October surge to a new all-time high of $125,100. He added that the coming year is expected to be up.
“Slow-moving” institutional flows seen cushioning downside
ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has ended. He pointed to the move from early October all-time highs near 125,000 to roughly $87,000, a decline of about 30% in a short span.
Market views are split on whether the cycle has concluded. The timing of the October peak aligns with prior four-year cycle tops, which could imply a weaker year in 2026.
Hougan said year-end weakness was partly driven by a “fast-moving” retail cohort rotating out in anticipation of the four-year cycle. He added that the current drawdown of around 30% contrasts with past cycle declines of about 60%, attributing the smaller pullback to persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.
Bitcoin is trading at $87,818 at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Some analysts remain cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently projected that Bitcoin could decline to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Limited impact seen from Trump administration on Bitcoin’s price
Bitcoin began 2025 by setting new all-time highs near $109,000 following Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, a development widely cited as a catalyst for the early-year rally.
Hougan said the administration is unlikely to deliver significant additional upside for Bitcoin, noting that the asset’s regulatory posture has become clearer and there is “not much more” that can be done at the margin.
Beau offered a similar assessment, noting that Bitcoin is treated as a commodity asset and that this has been outlined by the SEC.
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