Cantor cuts Strategy target 60% but keeps bullish stance
Cantor Fitzgerald has lowered its 12-month price target for Strategy to $229 from $560, a 60% cut, while maintaining a “buy” rating on the stock, according to the Financial Times. The firm downplayed concerns about potential forced liquidations tied to Bitcoin price volatility and possible exclusion from MSCI indexes.
The bank’s analysts said Strategy has enough liquidity to cover dividend payments for 21 months and could still raise additional funds through equity facilities if required. They added that, absent a 90% decline from current Bitcoin (BTC) levels, fears of forced selling are not warranted.
Strategy share prices compared to the Cantor price target. Source: FT.com
At the time of writing, Strategy shares traded near $186, down 27% over the past month and 35% year to date, based on Google Finance data. Cantor Fitzgerald is the company’s ninth-largest shareholder.
MSTR/USD, year-to-date chart. Source: Google Finance
MSCI risk and a $1.5 million Bitcoin scenario
Near-term risks include potential MSCI Index methodology changes that could exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets. Cantor said such a move could prompt “forced selling of MSTR,” describing it as a somewhat warranted concern but primarily a short-term flow headwind.
Largest assets by market capitalization. Source: CompaniesMarketCap.com
Cantor remains constructive on Strategy and Bitcoin’s outlook, characterizing the recent pullback as a healthy correction. The firm reiterated its view that Bitcoin is on a path to surpass the market capitalization of gold, noting Bitcoin’s market cap is currently 6.1% of gold’s. To exceed gold, Bitcoin would need to reach a price of $1,577,860.
Other analysts have projected a similar trajectory, including Joe Burnett, who forecast Bitcoin could top $1.8 million by 2035. Bitcoin’s price would need to rise nearly 16-fold to match the value of the gold market.
Bitcoin, gold, year-to-date chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Since the start of 2025, gold has gained 58%, outpacing Bitcoin’s 1.5% year-to-date decline, according to TradingView data.
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