Capriole: Bitcoin May Drop Below $50K if No Quantum Fix by 2028
Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole, warned that Bitcoin could trade well below $50,000 by 2028 if the network does not implement quantum-resistant protections.
The potential impact of quantum computing on cryptocurrencies has been widely discussed, with concerns that future machines capable of breaking encryption could expose private keys, compromise sensitive information and put user funds at risk.
While many consider the risk to be years away, Edwards said in an X post on Wednesday that a meaningful threat could emerge as soon as 2028. He cautioned that without timely upgrades, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could decline sharply.
Edwards argued that a severe market downturn might be required to spur action among stakeholders to implement a quantum-resilient upgrade. He added that if no fix is in place by 2028, Bitcoin could fall under $50,000 and continue to drop until a solution is deployed.
Quantum upgrade rollout needed in 2026
Critics contend the quantum threat is overstated, noting that practical quantum computers may be decades away and that traditional targets such as major banks would likely be compromised before Bitcoin.
Edwards, however, maintains the risk is more immediate and argues Bitcoin could be among the first targets. He said many banks and institutions are already migrating to post-quantum encryption, and unlike traditional finance—where fraudulent transfers can be reversed or blocked—Bitcoin transactions are irreversible.
He said a fix should be rolled out in 2026 and warned that failure to do so could trigger a bear market he described as more severe than the downturn associated with the FTX collapse.
Last month, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo suggested that one interim approach to mitigate quantum risk is to hold coins in a SegWit wallet for roughly seven years.
In July, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor played down the immediate threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, characterizing related claims as a marketing tactic for quantum-branded tokens.
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