CoinShares: Only 10K BTC are viable targets for quantum attacks
CoinShares estimates roughly 10,000 Bitcoin face practical quantum risk; majority seen as uneconomical targets
Digital asset manager CoinShares said only a small portion of Bitcoin currently presents a realistic target for quantum attacks, asserting that most holdings exposed to such risks are not worth the effort to compromise.
In a Friday post, CoinShares Bitcoin research lead Christopher Bendiksen estimated that 10,230 Bitcoin (BTC) out of 1.63 million BTC reside in addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys that could be susceptible to quantum computing. Of that amount, a little over 7,000 BTC are in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, while approximately 3,230 BTC are in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC — together valued at $719.1 million at prevailing market prices. Bendiksen said activity at that scale could resemble a routine market transaction.
Split of quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin across various holding sizes. Source: CoinShares
The remaining 1.62 million BTC are in addresses with balances under 100 BTC, which Bendiksen said would each take around a millennium to unlock, even under the “most outlandishly optimistic scenario of technological progression in quantum computing.”
Bendiksen attributed the theoretical risk to quantum algorithms such as Shor’s, which could compromise Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures, and Grover’s, which could weaken Secure Hash Algorithm 256-bit (SHA-256). He added that these algorithms cannot alter Bitcoin’s 21 million supply limit or bypass proof-of-work consensus.
Concerns about quantum computing have contributed to recent FUD around Bitcoin, with critics warning that any cryptographic break could endanger a network currently securing about $1.4 trillion in value. The exposed coins are tied to unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), many dating back to the Satoshi era.
The discussion has divided the community over whether to pursue a quantum-resistant hard fork or wait. Some participants, including Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back, argue quantum risks are overstated and unlikely to impact the network for decades.
Bendiksen expressed a similar view, stating Bitcoin is “nowhere near dangerous territory,” and that breaking its cryptography would require millions of fault-tolerant qubits — far beyond the 105 qubits reported for Google’s latest quantum computer, Willow. “Recent advancements, including demonstrations by Google and others, represent progress but fall short of the scale needed for real-world attacks on Bitcoin,” he said.
Others, including Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, see quantum computing as a potential “existential threat” and recommend upgrading the network now, with proposals such as post-quantum signatures suggested by Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick. Edwards said Bitcoin could be repriced significantly higher once a solution is implemented.
Source: Dom Kwok
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