Debate: Quantum Threat to Bitcoin and Satoshi’s Stash, Risks
A discussion on social media on Saturday examined potential market effects if a quantum computer breached Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings and sold the coins, after YouTuber Josh Otten posted a chart suggesting BTC could plunge to $3.00 under that scenario. Long-term holder Willy Woo said many early adopters would buy such a flash crash and argued the network would remain intact because most coins are not immediately exposed.
Woo noted that about 4 million BTC are stored in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses — including an estimated 1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi — which reveal the full public key on-chain when spent, making them susceptible to future quantum attacks. Once a public key is exposed, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could, in theory, derive the corresponding private key.
By contrast, newer Bitcoin address formats do not disclose full public keys on-chain, meaning a quantum computer cannot calculate a paired private key without that information.
The implications of quantum computing for Bitcoin and the cryptography used across digital assets remain under debate, with some commentators warning of long-term risks to existing encryption.
Adam Back says quantum computing risk remains decades away
Adam Back, an early Bitcoin holder, cypherpunk, and co-founder of Blockstream, said Bitcoin is unlikely to face a quantum threat within the next 20–40 years. He added that post-quantum cryptography standards already exist and can be adopted before hardware capable of defeating modern encryption is built.
Market analyst James Check likewise argued that quantum computing does not threaten Bitcoin’s core technology, as users would migrate to quantum-resistant addresses by the time a viable quantum computer emerges. He said the greater risk is to market pricing, adding there is “no chance” the community would agree to freeze Satoshi’s coins ahead of a potential compromise that could return them to circulation.
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