DeFi Weekly: Wood sticks to $1.5M BTC; UK plans DeFi tax revamp

Cryptocurrency markets bounced after four straight weeks of declines, with Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming the $90,000 threshold on Wednesday. The move lifted exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders back into profit as BTC traded above the cohort’s key $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis.

Investor sentiment improved after ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood reaffirmed the firm’s $1.5 million bull-market price target for Bitcoin, citing an expected return of liquidity following the end of the United States government shutdown.

The rebound coincided with a sharp rise in expectations for U.S. interest-rate cuts. Markets are now pricing an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, up from 39% a week earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com

Despite the midweek recovery, Bitcoin is still on track for its weakest November in seven years, down roughly 17% month-to-date. Historically, November has averaged 41% returns for BTC, according to CoinGlass.

ARK keeps $1.5M Bitcoin bull-case target as liquidity outlook brightens

ARK Invest said equities and digital assets may be positioned for a year-end reversal as liquidity improves and U.S. monetary policy turns more supportive following the shutdown’s resolution.

The firm estimates about $70 billion has flowed back into markets since the shutdown ended, with an additional $300 billion expected over the next five to six weeks as the Treasury General Account normalizes.

ARK also stated that on Dec. 1 the Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude quantitative tightening and pivot toward quantitative easing, a shift that involves bond purchases intended to reduce borrowing costs and support economic activity.

Source: ARK Invest

Liquidity squeeze outlook and long-term BTC projections

Cathie Wood said the current “liquidity squeeze” affecting cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence could ease over the next few weeks. In April, ARK published 2030 Bitcoin targets of $1.5 million in its bull case and $300,000 in its bear case; the firm said the bull-case projection remains in place.

Wood noted that stablecoin growth has absorbed some functions previously expected of Bitcoin, while gold’s appreciation has exceeded expectations. Overall, the top-end forecast remains unchanged.

Bitcoin price target for 2030. Source: Ark-invest.com

UK proposes DeFi tax relief via “no gain, no loss” approach

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) proposed on Wednesday a tax framework that would defer capital gains assessments for decentralized finance (DeFi) activities such as lending, borrowing and providing liquidity until the underlying tokens are sold or liquidity tokens are redeemed. Under the plan, taxable gains or losses would be calculated by comparing the number of tokens withdrawn with the number originally contributed.

Currently, depositing tokens into a protocol can be treated as a taxable event. In the UK, capital gains tax rates can range from 18% to 32%, depending on the action.

Industry participants described the proposal as a meaningful step that aligns taxation with the economic reality of DeFi transactions, particularly for users borrowing stablecoins against crypto collateral. Legal counsel from Aave said the change would clarify that tax is not triggered until tokens are actually sold and suggested other jurisdictions could consider HMRC’s approach.

DWF Labs unveils $75 million fund for institutional DeFi

DWF Labs announced Wednesday it will invest up to $75 million in decentralized finance projects positioned for institutional adoption. The initiative targets blockchain teams building dark-pool perpetual DEXs, decentralized money markets, and fixed-income or yield-bearing products as crypto liquidity structurally migrates on-chain.

Managing partner Andrei Grachev said DeFi is entering an institutional phase and emphasized the need for infrastructure that can handle larger order sizes, protect order flow and deliver sustainable yield. The fund will prioritize projects on Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, Solana and Base.

Beyond capital, DWF Labs said it will support teams with TVL and liquidity provisioning, hands-on go-to-market planning and execution, and access to partner exchanges, market makers, infrastructure providers and institutions.

Balancer community outlines plan to distribute recovered hack funds

Two members of the Balancer community submitted a proposal Thursday detailing how to distribute part of the assets recovered from the protocol’s $116 million November exploit.

Roughly $28 million has been recovered by white-hat participants, internal rescuers and StakeWise, an Ether (ETH) liquid staking platform. The proposal covers only the $8 million retrieved by white hats and internal teams, while the nearly $20 million recovered by StakeWise would be distributed separately to its users.

The plan recommends non-socialized reimbursements directed solely to affected liquidity pools, paid pro rata based on each holder’s share represented by Balancer Pool Tokens (BPT). It also proposes in-kind repayments in the same tokens lost to avoid price mismatches across assets. Cyvers CEO Deddy Lavid characterized the incident as among the most sophisticated attacks in 2025 and said it underscores the need to improve user safety as threats evolve.

Enlivex to raise $212 million and allocate proceeds to Rain token

Enlivex Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ENLV) said Monday it plans to raise $212 million through a private investment in public equity, issuing 212 million shares at $1 each—an 11.5% discount to Friday’s close—according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

The company intends to invest most of the proceeds in Rain (RAIN), the utility token powering the Rain decentralized prediction market on Arbitrum. The firm described the move as a first-of-its-kind corporate strategy centered on a prediction market token. Executive chairman Shai Novik said prediction markets present significant long-term growth potential and highlighted Rain’s decentralized architecture as a scalable model for global access and expansion. Enlivex expects to complete its Rain purchases within 30 days after the offering closes.

DeFi market overview

Data from the week show most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization finished higher. SPX6900 (SPX) gained more than 43% to lead advances, followed by Kaspa’s (KAS) token, up 39% over the same period.

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

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