Jump Trading to Take Minority Stakes in Polymarket, Kalshi
Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading firm, is preparing to take minority positions in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. The equity stakes would be provided in exchange for supplying trading liquidity on both venues. Specific ownership figures were not disclosed, though Bloomberg said Jump’s interest in Polymarket would adjust based on the amount of liquidity the firm ultimately provides.
Founded over two decades ago, Jump Trading is a long-standing participant in proprietary trading and has expanded aggressively into digital assets. The firm operates as both a market maker and a venture backer in digital assets, supporting blockchain infrastructure and exchanges through affiliated investment vehicles.
Polymarket and Kalshi rank among the largest prediction market operators, each reaching multibillion-dollar valuations following recent fundraising rounds.
Polymarket raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the NYSE, valuing the company at $9 billion. In early December, Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding at an $11 billion valuation.
Both platforms allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events but follow different models. Polymarket is a decentralized platform built on the Polygon blockchain that settles prediction contracts on-chain, while Kalshi operates as a centralized, federally regulated U.S. exchange.
Polymarket’s monthly volume has surged at the start of 2026. Source: Dune
Prediction markets expand, but regulatory challenges persist
Prediction markets drew wider attention after Polymarket’s event contracts accurately anticipated the 2024 U.S. presidential election, underscoring their potential as real-time information and risk-pricing tools. Industry estimates suggest the sector could generate trillions of dollars in annual trading volume by the end of the decade.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming has identified sports-related contracts as a key driver of expected growth. Speaking to CNBC in December, partner emeritus Chris Grove said sports betting could account for nearly half of the sector’s projected expansion.
Despite Polymarket’s early lead, Kalshi had largely caught up, with trading volumes at similar levels as of October. Source: Messari
Regulatory risk remains a central constraint. Kalshi, authorized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a Designated Contract Market, is facing challenges from state regulators in Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and Ohio, including ongoing litigation and cease-and-desist actions.
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