Kalshi clarifies Khamenei market rules, reimburses traders
Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour announced updates to the platform’s handling of positions on its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market, confirming that trades opened after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was confirmed would be voided and users reimbursed. Positions established before the confirmation of his death will be settled at the last-traded price prior to his death.
Mansour said the platform does not list markets directly tied to death and that, in instances where an outcome could involve death, Kalshi structures market rules to prevent users from profiting from such events.
Iranian state media reported Khamenei’s death early Sunday, following an attack launched by Israel and the United States a day earlier.
Kalshi is reimbursing all fees related to the market and will compensate traders with positions opened before Khamenei’s death based on the last-traded price before confirmation, according to Mansour. Users who entered the market after the reported death are being reimbursed the difference between their higher entry price and the last-traded price.
Source: Tarek Mansour
Kalshi stated that its prohibition on “death markets” is longstanding and was reiterated on Saturday. The company said the market’s rules included a specific death-related carveout. The move drew criticism from some users online who argued the action limited potential profits.
The prediction market for the ouster of the Iranian Supreme Leader. Source: Kalshi
Rising scrutiny of potential insider trading on prediction markets amid geopolitical events
In February, six traders on rival platform Polymarket reportedly earned about $1 million by wagering that the United States would carry out a strike on Iran before the end of the month, according to Bloomberg. All six wallets were created in February, focused primarily on Iran strike markets, and some positions were placed hours before the first explosions were heard over Tehran.
The trading activity prompted onchain investigators and analysts to raise concerns about potential insider trading.
In January, US President Donald Trump said that the person who leaked information related to the raid and capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been arrested by US law enforcement. You can get more information at this Washington Post video.
Those remarks led onchain analytics platform Lookonchain to suggest the leaker referenced by Trump could have been connected to winning Polymarket positions placed shortly before the US raid in Caracas.
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