Polymarket Account Wins $400K on Maduro Bet, Becomes Inaccessible
A Polymarket account that earned roughly $400,000 from a timely wager on the capture and removal of then‑Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is no longer accessible on the platform.
The profile page for the account “0x31a56e” — which reportedly staked about $32,000 on Maduro’s ouster just before reports surfaced of his capture by U.S. military and law enforcement — now returns a dead link. As of Thursday around 1:00 p.m. UTC, the page displayed the error message “Oops… we didn’t forecast this,” while other user pages remained available.
Source: Polymarket
Account moved $437,000 in USDC after payout
Archived data on Wayback Machine indicates the account placed multiple related wagers, including markets on whether U.S. forces would be in Venezuela by Jan. 31, whether the United States would “invade Venezuela” by Jan. 31, and whether U.S. President Donald Trump would “invoke War Powers” against Venezuela by Jan. 31.
Source: Wayback Machine
On-chain records for the corresponding Polygon address show it received about $436,700 in USDC (USDC) from the Polymarket CTF Exchange on Jan. 3 at 1:41 p.m. UTC. Hours later, $437,800 in USDC left the address at 11:54 p.m. UTC.
Insider-trading concerns intensify on prediction markets
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether the account was intentionally deactivated, whether the issue reflects a platform error, or whether the user removed their profile. The company has not issued a public statement. According to Polymarket’s privacy policy, users may request deletion or return of all personal data, including copies and backups.
Broader concerns about insider trading and transparency on prediction markets have grown across the industry. Some U.S. lawmakers, including Representative Ritchie Torres, have supported legislative efforts aimed at limiting insider activity on such platforms.
Separately, a trader with an account reportedly showing a 100% win rate placed a wager on the United States striking Iran by the end of January on Polymarket, further drawing scrutiny from market observers.
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