Polymarket Puts 77% Odds on U.S. Shutdown; CLARITY Act in Limbo
Polymarket traders are assigning a 77% probability that the U.S. government will shut down again before the end of January, a 67% increase over the last 24 hours, according to the prediction market’s data.
The move follows comments on Thursday from U.S. President Donald Trump, who told Fox Business, “I think we have a problem, because I think we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.” The shutdown risk also comes as the CLARITY Act, a crypto regulatory proposal seeking clearer rules, continues to advance through Congress. Earlier delays were attributed to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown in October and November.
Political commentator Collin Rugg drew attention to the rising Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, shortly after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” on the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included.
“What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling — and unacceptable in any American city,” Schumer said in a statement. Reports on Saturday morning said U.S. federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis.
Trump didn’t rule out shutdown in the future
Schumer added that the DHS bill is “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no.”
The potential for a shutdown adds uncertainty to the CLARITY Act’s timeline. The bill has faced mixed reactions from the crypto sector after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other industry executives withdrew their support. “This version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft,” Armstrong said on Jan. 15.
CLARITY Act timeline remains unclear
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn noted in a report on Thursday that questions remain around stablecoin yield provisions, which the U.S. banking lobby argues could weaken banks’ competitiveness. “There aren’t yet any significant indications that the two sides have identified a compromise that can rejuvenate the bill’s prospects,” he said, adding that “the additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on that.”
Thorn said a key issue is whether “the gridlocked negotiations over stablecoin rewards can advance in the interim to raise the odds that such a markup is a bipartisan success.”
Stay informed, read the latest news right now!
Disclaimer
The content on TrustsCrypto.com is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, always do your own research before making decisions.
Some content may be assisted by AI and reviewed by our editorial team, but accuracy is not guaranteed. TrustsCrypto.com is not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of information provided.
