Six Polymarket Traders Net $1M on US-Iran Strike Bets, Red Flags
Six newly created Polymarket wallets earned about $1 million by correctly wagering that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, prompting concerns about potential insider trading, Bloomberg reported, citing data from analytics firm Bubblemaps SA.
The wallets, all opened in February, focused almost exclusively on contracts predicting the timing of a possible U.S. attack, according to the report. In multiple instances, shares were purchased only hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran, with some positions acquired near $0.10 per share.
“In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public,” said Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, as reported by Bloomberg. “Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early.”
Polymarket strike-related markets see $529 million in activity
During the latest escalation, more than $529 million moved through strike-related contracts on Polymarket, per Bloomberg. The contract centered on Feb. 28 drew approximately $90 million in trading volume, making it the most active date, followed by a Jan. 31 scenario with about $42 million.
One of the flagged wallets reportedly lost funds on an earlier prediction before placing a larger bet that later generated more than $170,000, underscoring that the trading pattern alone does not establish wrongdoing. U.S. officials had publicly signaled the possibility of military action for weeks, which drew significant speculative interest.
Allegations of potential insider activity have surfaced in other Polymarket contracts. A small group of crypto wallets collectively made more than $1.2 million on a market tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee and associates had engaged in insider trading since early 2025. In a separate instance last month, a Polymarket account realized about $400,000 on a timely bet regarding the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro after placing roughly $32,000 on his removal shortly before the development became public.
US lawmaker proposes curbs on insider trading in prediction markets
U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation titled the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which aims to restrict insider trading on prediction platforms. The measure would prohibit elected officials, political appointees, and executive-branch employees from trading contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they possess nonpublic information.
Polymarket has also faced regulatory actions in multiple jurisdictions. Authorities in the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore, and Portugal have blocked or banned access to the platform after classifying its event-based contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than financial instruments.
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