Suspected insider wallets net $1.2M on Polymarket Axiom bet
A small set of crypto wallets earned more than $1.2 million by wagering on a Polymarket market linked to ZachXBT’s onchain investigation into decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Axiom, raising fresh questions about whether prediction markets can reward users with advance knowledge of market-moving disclosures.
The eight most profitable wallets collectively netted about $1.2 million, according to trading data compiled on Dune. The same dataset shows more than 50 wallets registered combined losses of roughly $1.23 million, while two wallets lost about $366,000.
Onchain researcher Defioasis said eight of the top 10 wallets are likely insider addresses based on their onchain activity. “There are 3 addresses that achieved profits exceeding $100,000, all of which are insider addresses that traded only this single market,” the researcher wrote in an X post on Friday.
Top wallets betting on Axiom in ZachXBT’s insider exposé. Source: Dune
ZachXBT released the anticipated report on Thursday, alleging that Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
Source: ZachXBT
Responding on X, Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the news and had revoked access to the tools purportedly used in the alleged insider trading scheme.
Insider-trading concerns in prediction markets
Concerns about insider trading on prediction markets intensified in early January after a highly profitable position on the potential removal of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro drew attention. On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account bet on a contract predicting Maduro would be removed from office just hours before US forces captured him in a military operation, producing about $400,000 in profit. US lawmakers have since proposed legislation to restrict political prediction market participation by government officials, adding to regulatory scrutiny of the sector.
Polymarket faces increased regulatory scrutiny over gambling rules
Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, is under growing regulatory pressure in several countries where authorities say the platform offers unlicensed gambling. Hungary and Portugal blocked access to the site in January, citing prohibitions on unlawful gambling activities. A week earlier, Ukraine restricted Polymarket, classifying its operations as unlicensed gambling under national law. The platform has also been restricted or blocked in other countries over gambling concerns, including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland.
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