Today in Crypto: BTC Cycle, SEC Custody Guide, Itaú Allocation
Today’s crypto roundup: An analyst says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains in effect but is increasingly influenced by politics and liquidity; the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued an investor bulletin on crypto custody; and Itaú Asset recommended a 1%–3% Bitcoin allocation for portfolios in 2026.
Analyst: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle persists, now influenced by politics and liquidity
Bitcoin’s longstanding four-year pattern continues, though drivers have shifted from the halving to political timelines and market liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Thielen said the cycle has not been “broken”; instead, factors such as U.S. election schedules, central bank policy, and capital flows into risk assets have taken a larger role.
He noted that market tops in 2013, 2017 and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, aligning more closely with presidential election cycles and periods of broader political uncertainty than with halving dates, which have moved across the calendar over time. Thielen added that election-year uncertainty, including the possibility that the incumbent party could lose seats in Congress, can weigh on policy momentum and market risk appetite.
Markus Thielen says four-year cycle is not dead. Source: The Wolf Of All Streets
SEC issues investor bulletin on crypto custody practices
The SEC published guidance outlining considerations for investors on crypto storage and custody. The bulletin compares the trade-offs between cold storage and online hot wallets, provides factors for evaluating third-party custodians, and underscores safeguarding private keys used to sign transactions and verify onchain identity.
Bitcoin’s supply broken down by the type of custody and exposure. Source: River
The SEC advised investors using third-party custody to understand how their assets may be handled, including whether holdings could be lent out or commingled with other clients’ assets. The investor bulletin reflects a broader regulatory shift at the agency following the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chair.
Brazil’s largest private bank suggests 1%–3% Bitcoin allocation in 2026
Itaú Asset Management, the investment arm of Itaú Unibanco, recommended that investors allocate 1% to 3% of portfolios to Bitcoin in 2026. In a research note, Itaú Asset’s Renato Eid cited a global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, evolving monetary policy and ongoing currency risks as support for adding Bitcoin (BTC) as a complementary asset.
Eid characterized Bitcoin as distinct from fixed income, traditional equities and domestic markets, with its own return profile and, due to its global and decentralized structure, potential currency hedging properties.
The recommendation follows a volatile year for Bitcoin: the asset began 2025 near $95,000, fell toward $80,000 during the tariff crisis, then rallied to an all-time high of $125,000 before returning to around $95,000.
A correlation matrix comparing BITI11 (a Bitcoin ETF) with major Brazilian and international market indices. Source: Itaú
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