Tom Lee tempers $250K Bitcoin call, year-end ATH a maybe
BitMine chair Tom Lee has moderated his widely publicized projection for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, saying it is now only a “maybe” that the cryptocurrency will retest its October all-time high of $125,100 before year-end. Lee told CNBC on Wednesday that he still sees it as “very likely” Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 before the end of the year, and “maybe even to a new high.”
This marks the first time Lee has publicly softened his $250,000 year-end target, a forecast he first introduced earlier in 2024 and continued to repeat through early October. His call had been among the more optimistic outlooks. Other industry leaders, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, cautioned around October that “crazy stuff” would be required for Bitcoin to rise to that level.
Lee added that some of Bitcoin’s “best days” could still arrive before the end of 2025, noting, “I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” with 35 days remaining until the end of 2025.
Few trading sessions drive most returns, executive says
Lee highlighted Bitcoin’s historical pattern of generating the bulk of its gains in a limited number of sessions each year, observing that the asset typically “makes its move” over just 10 days annually.
The view is shared by other market participants. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a February 2024 post on X that while investors cannot predict when those days will occur, missing Bitcoin’s best 10 days has historically meant missing nearly all of its returns.
In 2024, Bitcoin’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the other 355 days posted an average return of -15%.
Bitcoin has trended lower since Oct. 10 following a $19 billion wave of liquidations across the crypto market that came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The asset reclaimed the $90,000 level on Wednesday after spending six consecutive days below it.
This comes despite November being, on average, Bitcoin’s strongest month since 2013, according to CoinGlass. Separately, economist Timothy Peterson said on Monday that Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in, or could form this week.
Lee’s Bitcoin forecasts have been mixed
If Bitcoin does not meet Lee’s latest target, it would not be the first time one of his forecasts missed. In January 2018, Lee said Bitcoin could reach as high as $125,000 by 2022. The highest price in 2018 was $17,172.
Lee has also made accurate calls. In July 2017, he projected a base-case scenario of $20,000 by 2022 and a more optimistic case of $55,000 over the same timeframe. Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap.
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