VanEck sees risk-on Q1 2026 amid fiscal, monetary clarity
Global asset manager VanEck expects the first quarter to be a risk-on period for markets, citing greater clarity on fiscal policy, monetary direction, and key investment themes. The firm said in its Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday that, as markets head into 2026, investors have an element that has been missing for years: visibility.
On Bitcoin (BTC), VanEck noted that the typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” creating uncertainty for short‑term signals. The firm said this divergence warrants a more cautious stance over the next 3–6 months, while acknowledging that some executives remain more positive on the immediate cycle.
Risk-on conditions typically support higher-beta assets, including AI and technology equities as well as crypto. However, Bitcoin has decoupled from equities and gold in recent months following a major deleveraging event in October.
Fewer fiscal and monetary shocks expected
VanEck highlighted gradual improvement in the U.S. fiscal backdrop as a key development. While deficits remain high, they are decreasing as a share of GDP from the peaks reached during the COVID period, the firm said. This stabilization is helping to anchor longer-dated interest rates and reduce tail risks.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said the outlook skews more toward the medium term than near-term catalysts. He added that price action offers its own confirmation, with BTC advancing in a low‑leverage environment after last year’s excesses were flushed out. According to d’Anethan, many indicators appear deeply oversold and are starting to recover.
He added that, despite tensions with the U.S. administration and the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainty and broadly constructive sentiment toward risk assets may support crypto as it plays catch‑up.
Outlook for H1 2026 seen as more defined
Following late‑2025 volatility and adjustments, the market path for the first half of 2026 has become clearer, according to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group. With U.S. midterm elections approaching, he said both fiscal and financial conditions are expected to become more favorable to risk assets.
Sun pointed to the combination of fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary settings, and improving regulatory signals as creating a classic risk‑on window in H1 2026, a backdrop in which Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market could benefit.
Crypto investor Will Clemente said current conditions—rising geopolitical risk, strong performance in metals amid reserve diversification, and record highs in stocks and other risk assets—align with the circumstances Bitcoin was designed to address.
Analyst sees Bitcoin returning to six figures
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, said he expects BTC to revisit six figures before the end of January. He noted there has been no sustained move below the 21‑day moving average, with buyers stepping in to accumulate at those levels.
Van de Poppe said the market’s prolonged consolidation underscores the importance of potential breakout zones. He projected that a decisive move above $92,000 could lead to $100,000 within a maximum of ten days.
BTC reached $92,000 early Tuesday morning in Asia after dipping to the low $90,000 area on Monday.
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