Bitcoin Holds $77K as Stocks Rally and Global Tensions Cool: Are BTC Bulls Back?

Bitcoin is holding above $77,000 after a sharp rebound from Friday’s $74,000 low, buoyed by a U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement that sent oil prices tumbling and global equities surging. But with on-chain data flashing warning signs and ETF outflows topping $1.55 billion, the question remains whether bulls have truly reclaimed control or are simply riding a macro-driven relief rally.

Bitcoin steadies at $77K as macro headwinds shift

Bitcoin traded at $76,624 on May 26, down 0.53% over 24 hours but well above the ~$74,000 low hit late Friday. The recovery came after President Trump announced on Truth Social that a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” citing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a key element of the deal.

The geopolitical catalyst rippled across global markets. Oil prices fell 5% on the deal news, with Brent dropping below $100 per barrel. Asian equities surged in response: India’s Nifty climbed over 1%, Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%.

BTC dominance sits at 58.21% of the total $2.64 trillion crypto market cap, signaling that capital continues to favor Bitcoin over altcoins during this period of macro uncertainty.

What the market data actually shows about BTC’s recovery

Despite the headline price holding, on-chain metrics paint a more cautious picture. Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand fell to -147,000 BTC, its most negative reading since December 2025. This signals that spot buying pressure is weakening even as price stabilizes above the $77K level.

Binance saw net BTC inflows for 10 consecutive days, with reserves rising 16,000 BTC in one month. Rising exchange reserves typically indicate holders are positioning to sell, adding a bearish on-chain signal to the mix.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive days of net outflows totaling more than $1.55 billion since May 14. This institutional retreat undercuts the bull narrative, though analytics firm Santiment has noted that substantial ETF withdrawal episodes have recently functioned as contrarian indicators, with rallies materializing shortly after major outflow events.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 34 (Fear), confirming that broader market sentiment remains cautious despite the price recovery. The disconnect between a stabilizing price and fearful sentiment suggests traders are not yet convinced the worst is over.

Why the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks matters right now

Bitcoin’s rebound tracked equities almost tick-for-tick. The Iran peace deal lowered oil prices, eased inflation expectations, and boosted risk appetite across asset classes simultaneously. When BTC moves in lockstep with stocks, it behaves as a high-beta risk asset rather than an independent store of value.

This matters because bulls waiting for a BTC-specific catalyst have not received one. The recovery was driven entirely by macro relief, not by crypto-native demand. With spot Bitcoin ETFs logging $1.257 billion in net outflows just the week prior, institutional conviction remains absent.

For BTC to decouple from equities on its own bullish leg, it typically needs a crypto-specific catalyst: a supply shock, a regulatory breakthrough, or a surge in on-chain adoption. None of those are present in the current setup. The correlation means that if equities stall or reverse, Bitcoin likely follows.

Key levels to watch: where bulls need to hold and bears need to break

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, noted that immediate support at $76,000 must hold to prevent a broader market-wide selloff. Below that, the ~$74,000 level tested on Friday represents the line where the current recovery narrative breaks entirely.

On the upside, $78,500 is the level bulls need to reclaim to confirm renewed momentum. Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025, remains distant, with BTC currently trading roughly 39% below that peak.

The structural contradiction is notable: macro tailwinds are present (Iran deal, equity rally, falling oil), yet on-chain headwinds are at multi-month extremes. Apparent Demand at its weakest since December 2025, rising exchange reserves, and persistent ETF outflows all suggest the price hold is fragile without fresh buying pressure.

Upcoming PCE inflation data could be the next catalyst in either direction. According to a single source, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model shows 4.3% Q2 growth, which could complicate the case for rate cuts. The interplay between this week’s macro data and major token unlock events will shape whether Bitcoin can hold this range or slip back toward the $74,000 floor.

FAQ: Bitcoin price, macro correlation, and what comes next

Is $77K a strong support level for Bitcoin?

The $75,000 to $77,000 zone has held through multiple tests, but on-chain data (Apparent Demand at -147,000 BTC, rising Binance reserves) suggests it is under pressure. A break below $76,000 would signal weakness.

Why is Bitcoin rising with the stock market?

The U.S.-Iran peace deal reduced geopolitical risk across all asset classes simultaneously. Oil fell 5%, equities rallied, and Bitcoin benefited from the same risk-on sentiment shift rather than any crypto-specific catalyst.

What would confirm that Bitcoin bulls are back in control?

A sustained move above $78,500 with rising spot volume and a reversal in ETF flows from outflows to inflows. Currently, six straight days of ETF outflows totaling over $1.55 billion argue against a confirmed bull trend.

What is the next key resistance level for BTC?

The immediate resistance is $78,500. Beyond that, the $80,000 psychological level looms. Bitcoin’s ATH of $126,080 from October 2025 represents the long-term target bulls are watching.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.